Our 2020 Predictions For OpenAI Came True… Here’s What’s Next
About This Episode
Sam and Shaan review their past predictions from the 2020 era, evaluating their hits on OpenAI and sperm freezing against their misses on Clubhouse and BitClout. They analyze the concept of 'inertia' in business and life, while identifying new opportunities in AI companionship and the acquisition of distressed venture-backed startups.
Episode Description
Show Notes
- 0:00Intro
- 5:00Prediction: Freezing sperm + DTC-TRT
- 11:00Whiff: Bitclout
- 18:00Prediction: Clout Kitchens
- 22:00Prediction: Clubhouse fails
- 27:00Whiff: Thrasio
- 30:00Whiff: Privacy as a Service
- 33:00Prediction: GPT-3
- 37:00Prediction: Bryan Johnson's Blueprint
- 43:00Inertia is a b*tch
- 51:00Prediction: Paid communities
- 58:00Takeaway: The predictions that matter are on the ones you act on
- 1:00:00Paying attention to irrational behaviors
- 1:04:00Uber credit loophole guy - Where is he?
- 1:07:00New Prediction: Beta.character.ai
- 1:09:00New Prediction: Wounded unicorns
Links
- Derek from MPMD on MFM
- Bucked Up
- Legacy
- Dadi (acquired by Ro)
- Hone
- Bitclout
- friend.tech
- Clout Kitchens clip
- Clubhouse
- Trasio
- DuckDuckGo
- Episode 94 - Is GPT-3 the Next Big Thing
- Jasper.ai
- Anthropic
- Blueprint | Bryan Johnson
- Braintree
- Monkey Inferno
- Vistage
- EcommerceFuel
- Character.ai
- Replika
- Past guests on My First Million include Rob Dyrdek, Hasan Minhaj, Balaji Srinivasan, Jake Paul, Dr. Andrew Huberman, Gary Vee, Lance Armstrong, Sophia Amoruso, Ariel Helwani, Ramit Sethi, Stanley Druckenmiller, Peter Diamandis, Dharmesh Shah, Brian Halligan, Marc Lore, Jason Calacanis, Andrew Wilkinson, Julian Shapiro, Kat Cole, Codie Sanchez, Nader Al-Naji, Steph Smith, Trung Phan, Nick Huber, Anthony Pompliano, Ben Askren, Ramon Van Meer, Brianne Kimmel, Andrew Gazdecki, Scott Belsky, Moiz Ali, Dan Held, Elaine Zelby, Michael Saylor, Ryan Begelman, Jack Butcher, Reed Duchscher, Tai Lopez, Harley Finkelstein, Alexa von Tobel, Noah Kagan, Nick Bare, Greg Isenberg, James Altucher, Randy Hetrick and more.
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Key Takeaways
Lean into 'weird' behaviors: When you observe a phenomenon that seems inexplicable or irrational to the general public, investigate it deeply rather than writing it off as dorky.
Combat personal and professional inertia: Periodically ask yourself if you would choose your current project, team, or investments today if you were starting with a completely blank slate.
Identify 'Wounded Unicorns': There is a significant arbitrage opportunity in acquiring VC-backed startups that have established revenue (e.g., $5M-$10M) but can no longer raise capital.
Business Ideas Mentioned
Pre-workout Supplement for Focus and Productivity
E-commerce
Celebrity-Branded Virtual Gifting Kitchens
E-commerce
AI Relationship and Companion Platforms
AI & Automation
Wounded Unicorn Acquisition Fund
Acquisitions